Current War Situation in Ukraine
The main two directions of war are eastern (Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts) and southeastern (Kherson, Zaporizhzhia oblasts). Ukrainian troops have broken through russian defenses in the southern Kherson oblast. In Donetsk oblast, Ukrainian forces are pushing east. On October 1st they liberated the town of Lyman in the Donetsk oblast. This town was a stronghold and an important transport hub for the russian army.
The Ukrainian military has liberated 1,534 settlements in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson oblasts. However, russia still occupies about 15% of Ukraine, including Crimea.
After the liberation of the Kharkiv oblast from the russian invaders, many graves, including nameless ones, were found in the oblast. In general, 1,277 civilians including 56 children, were killed by the actions of russian troops there. 2,348 civilians were injured. 11 bodies were mutilated to such an extent that it is still impossible to determine their gender. There were a lot of upsetting findings in the oblast. For example, in the picture below you can see the golden dental crowns taken off the live people during the tortures that russians were doing. These findings remind us of World War II when fascists were take off golden crowns before killing people in the gas chambers.
Heavy shellings of Ukrainian cities by russian forces continue (Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia oblasts). On October 6, 7 missiles hit Zaporizhzhia. As a result, 7 people died.
Iran sold a couple of hundred of military drones «Shahed-136» to russia. In the russian army, they called these Iranian-made drones «geranium». The world knows that these drones are from Iran. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has forced the ambassador of Iran to leave Iranian Embassy in Ukraine. As a result, since the end of September, a lot of Ukrainian cities were attacked by these drones. On October 5 military base in Kyiv oblast (Bila Tserkva) was damaged. Nobody died, however, there were injured people. Six out of twelve drones were eliminated on the way.
Meanwhile, russian government is in huge trouble within the country. People starting to understand, that this is not a special operation, but this is a war. On September 21st putin announced the mobilization of hundreds of thousands russian men. They claimed that they need 300 000 soldiers. In fact, all these mobilized do not have any military training and are immediately sent to hostilities in Ukraine. Russia is sending untrained soldiers for their true death. According to statistics, only 29% of them want to fight, 15% support the idea, and 48% want peace talks. There are many news and videos on the Internet where russians purposely break their legs, and arms, and even kill themselves in order not to go to war. In August 48% of russians wanted the war to continue. So far, about 700,000 people have left russia in two weeks of mobilization. Since 21 September, 200,000 russians have entered Kazakhstan. 53,000 russians came to Georgia in a week. 10,000 people cross the border of Georgia every day (40-45% more than before September 21). In one week, 66,000 russians entered the EU (30% more than before).
Self-styled referendums were held between 23 and 27 September. Occupiers annexed four oblasts: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. However, only russia and Noth Korea have admitted to joining these territories to russia. The majority of the specialists say that these referendums will not change the war outcome. However, these actions give a few possible scenarios for russia. Firstly, they can start to send more of their regular army to Ukrainian territories (because they claim it is russian territory). Secondly, it allows russia to use more military equipment like nuclear weapons. However, it looks like they are bluffing and are afraid to use it because the consequences will be too serious for russia. Thirdly, they can officially announce massive mobilization and change the status of the special military operation to the status of war. However, all four regions that “joined russia” since referendums have lost some territory or have re-joint Ukraine with the help of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Therefore, russia no longer has full control of any of the four ‘annexed’ oblasts. Moreover, russia occupies only about 30% of the Zaporizhzhia oblast, including the ZaporizhzhiaNPP, but not Zaporizhzhia city, the main urban center.
On September 21, 215 Ukrainian defenders were released (four months in russian captivity):
- 188 defenders of Azovstal and Mariupol;
- 10 foreigners (from the UK, USA, Morocco, Sweden, and Croatia).
They were exchanged for 55 russian soldiers and Viktor Medvedchuk.