Current War Situation in Ukraine
- Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains south of Bakhmut (July 25).
- Andriivka (near Bakhmut) is under Ukrainian control now.
- Counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia oblast are continuing.
July 23, 2023
- russia attacked the port city of Odesa, destroying many UNESCO world heritage sites, including the Transfiguration Cathedral.
- Two people killed. Dozens are injured.
Harvest – 2023
As of July 21, almost 6 mln tons of grains and legumes have been harvested:
- wheat – 3420,2 K tons;
- barley – 2253,3 K tons;
- peas – 85 K tons;
- winter rapeseed – 1390 K tons.
5% decrease in grain yield is predicted.
Source: Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine
Russian Grain Terror
After the termination of the “grain agreement”, russia began active shelling of Ukrainian ports:
- July 18 -19 (Odesa): 60 K tons of grain, 100 tons of peas, 20 tons of barley were destroyed.
- July 23 (Odesa): Grain storage was damaged, 120 tons of grain were destroyed.
- July 27, 2023 (Odesa): One person is killed. Production equipment of one of the cargo terminals was damaged.
During these 9 days of russian attacks on the ports:
- 26 port infrastructure facilities were damaged or destroyed.
- 5 ships were damaged.
July 21, 2023
- two missiles hit the enterprise of our client Oleksandr Romanov in the Odesa oblast;
- 6 powerful grain warehouses and infrastructure were completely destroyed.
40 minutes after, when all emergency services arrived, two more missiles arrived.
July 24, 2023
- russia attacked the port of Reni with 15 Shahed-136 drones;
- three grain warehouses were destroyed.
!!! Through the Danube ports, Ukraine exports about 2,2 mln tons of production per month.
About 30 ships stopped in Izmail after the attacks.
!!! Through the Danube ports, Ukraine exports about 2,2 mln tons of production per month.
About 30 ships stopped in Izmail after the attacks.
History Repeating: 1929, 1939, 1948, and 1953
- Tax on trees (and bushes) and massive cut down of the Ukrainian gardens.
- Genocide of Ukrainian culture.
- Trees were treated with reverence. It was considered a sin to cut down trees. Every frozen or broken by a storm tree was mourned. Every spring planting was a holiday.
- Dozens of ancient varieties of apples, pears, plums, apricots, cherries, raspberries, strawberries, peaches were destroyed.
Russian Grain Terror: Consequences
- The amount of losses may reach $50–60 mln (without destroyed grain);
- increase of corn and wheat prices by 30-40% in the short term.
- reduction of the rate of sunflower and rape seed processing by more than 30%, thus increasing the sunflower oil prices by 20-25%.
- reduction of the rate of sunflower and rape seed processing by more than 30%, thus increasing the sunflower oil prices by 20-25%.
Photo: Latifundist.com
Export: Black Sea Grain Initiative
- Since the beginning of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, about 33 mln tons of agricultural products have been exported.
- July 16: last ship left the port of Odesa. 15.3 K tons of rapeseed and 23.5 K tons of corn were sent to the Netherlands.
- July 17: russia officially refused to extend the “grain agreement” and announced that all ships that go to the Black Sea ports of Ukraine will be considered as carriers of military cargo.
ISW suggests that the kremlin considers the grain initiative as a way to influence the West, and withdrew from it to achieve:
- removal of sanctions on the export of agricultural products and fertilizers;
- connecting banks to SWIFT;
- restoration of supplies of components and spare parts for agricultural machinery and fertilizers;
- resumption of operation of the “Togliatti-Odesa” ammonia pipeline.
Export: Cost of Logistics
- Ukraine will go on exporting most of its grains and oilseeds through its land borders and Danube ports.
- It will drive up transportation costs.
- 90% – by trucks;
- 10% – by railways;
- Approximate rise is $50/ton.
Export: Grain Prices
The International Monetary Fund estimated that russia’s exit from the “grain agreement” can lead to a 10-15% increase in world grain prices.
They Need Our Help (1)
- Natalia Melnychenko and her family, a husband (a person with disability after a stroke) and a son, live in the village Velyka Oleksandrivka.
- They cultivated 27.4 ha of their own land and 40 ha of leased land, planting sunflowers and cereal crops.
- They also raised 8 pigs and 20 chickens.
- The family had their own shop with wedding dresses store, embroidered dresses, and children’s goods as an additional source of income.
- On March 10, 2022, russians occupied the village and organized their positions not far from Natalia’s house (50 meters away).
- The family managed to evacuate from the village.
- 4 days before the liberation of the village, Natalia’s house burned down with all the property, as a result of shelling (see photos).
- Family needs the help in rebuilding their own house to be able to survive the winter and go on with their farming activity after the demining of the land.
They Need Our Help (2)
- Oleksandr Donchenko is a 36-year-old farmer, who was forced to move to Kryvyj Rih because of the occupation of his village Velyka Oleksandrivka (Kherson oblast).
- The village was under occupation from March 9, 2022 to October 10, 2022 (7 months).
- Oleksandr has a family, consisting of the wife Iryna and two children, 6-year-old daughter Zlata (child with disability) and 5-month-old son Volodymyr.
- Planted wheat, barley, peas, and sunflowers.
- Cultivated 96 ha of farmland (33 ha of which are mined).
- Practiced animal husbandry: more than 100 pigs, 10 cows, and 7 calves.
- Oleksandr needs his warehouse to be reconstructed, as it was damaged by the debris during the shelling.
